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        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "positions",
        "promptText": "Give several distinct positions that people hold about the following topic. State each position in a sentence or two.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 0,
        "sampleIndex": 4,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The dominant explanation is a straightforward resource constraint: the observed effect scales with how much of the input is available, and most of the variation between cases is explained by that alone.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
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        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "causes",
        "promptText": "Explain the causes of the following problem.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 0,
        "sampleIndex": 5,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.7,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The dominant explanation is a straightforward resource constraint: the observed effect scales with how much of the input is available, and most of the variation between cases is explained by that alone.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "positions",
        "promptText": "Give several distinct positions that people hold about the following topic. State each position in a sentence or two.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 0,
        "sampleIndex": 5,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The dominant explanation is a straightforward resource constraint: the observed effect scales with how much of the input is available, and most of the variation between cases is explained by that alone.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
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        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "solutions",
        "promptText": "Suggest possible solutions to the following problem.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 0,
        "sampleIndex": 5,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.7,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "positions",
        "promptText": "Give several distinct positions that people hold about the following topic. State each position in a sentence or two.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 0,
        "sampleIndex": 6,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The standard account attributes this to incentives. Actors respond to what is measured and rewarded, and the pattern follows from those incentives rather than from anything intrinsic to the process.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "solutions",
        "promptText": "Suggest possible solutions to the following problem.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 0,
        "sampleIndex": 6,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.7,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "causes",
        "promptText": "Explain the causes of the following problem.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 0,
        "sampleIndex": 6,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.7,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The standard account attributes this to incentives. Actors respond to what is measured and rewarded, and the pattern follows from those incentives rather than from anything intrinsic to the process.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_solutions",
        "promptText": "What should be done about the following? List approaches, including ones that are less commonly proposed.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 0,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The usual explanation is historical path dependence: early choices locked in a configuration that is now costly to change, and the present pattern is largely inherited rather than chosen. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_causes",
        "promptText": "What explains the following? Give your best account, then one less obvious account.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 0,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The dominant explanation is a straightforward resource constraint: the observed effect scales with how much of the input is available, and most of the variation between cases is explained by that alone. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_causes",
        "promptText": "What explains the following? Give your best account, then one less obvious account.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 1,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The dominant explanation is a straightforward resource constraint: the observed effect scales with how much of the input is available, and most of the variation between cases is explained by that alone. Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
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      {
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_solutions",
        "promptText": "What should be done about the following? List approaches, including ones that are less commonly proposed.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 1,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Most treatments point to a measurement artefact. The effect appears larger in datasets that sample unevenly, which suggests part of it is an artefact of how observations are collected. Most proposals involve targeting: rather than acting uniformly, concentrate effort where the marginal return is highest and accept lower coverage elsewhere.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_causes",
        "promptText": "What explains the following? Give your best account, then one less obvious account.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 2,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The standard account attributes this to incentives. Actors respond to what is measured and rewarded, and the pattern follows from those incentives rather than from anything intrinsic to the process. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "2a618d3f-f9f5-42a8-adb4-482f6cb4e6b4",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_solutions",
        "promptText": "What should be done about the following? List approaches, including ones that are less commonly proposed.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 2,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The dominant explanation is a straightforward resource constraint: the observed effect scales with how much of the input is available, and most of the variation between cases is explained by that alone. Most proposals involve targeting: rather than acting uniformly, concentrate effort where the marginal return is highest and accept lower coverage elsewhere.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "4e9c2d7f-3237-4292-8e02-83baa2233662",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_solutions",
        "promptText": "What should be done about the following? List approaches, including ones that are less commonly proposed.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 3,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The standard account attributes this to incentives. Actors respond to what is measured and rewarded, and the pattern follows from those incentives rather than from anything intrinsic to the process. Most proposals involve targeting: rather than acting uniformly, concentrate effort where the marginal return is highest and accept lower coverage elsewhere.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
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        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_causes",
        "promptText": "What explains the following? Give your best account, then one less obvious account.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 3,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The usual explanation is historical path dependence: early choices locked in a configuration that is now costly to change, and the present pattern is largely inherited rather than chosen. Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "3bf9f3df-5f7d-4538-9295-1f5ffcfa1998",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_causes",
        "promptText": "What explains the following? Give your best account, then one less obvious account.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 4,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The usual explanation is historical path dependence: early choices locked in a configuration that is now costly to change, and the present pattern is largely inherited rather than chosen. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "99389783-d4a7-4246-9a8a-200668ff61d0",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_causes",
        "promptText": "What explains the following? Give your best account, then one less obvious account.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 5,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Most treatments point to a measurement artefact. The effect appears larger in datasets that sample unevenly, which suggests part of it is an artefact of how observations are collected. Most proposals involve targeting: rather than acting uniformly, concentrate effort where the marginal return is highest and accept lower coverage elsewhere.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "82eb5c0c-959d-421d-9c48-344cbcd5bb29",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "resample_causes",
        "promptText": "What explains the following? Give your best account, then one less obvious account.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 1,
        "sampleIndex": 6,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "The usual explanation is historical path dependence: early choices locked in a configuration that is now costly to change, and the present pattern is largely inherited rather than chosen. Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "e164cd56-02a1-431d-aefb-026da7e80bb8",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "challenge",
        "promptText": "Challenge the conventional view on the following. What does the mainstream account get wrong, and what would a better account say?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 0,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.9,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A contrarian reading is that the effect runs in the opposite direction to the one usually assumed, and that the correlation everyone cites reflects reverse causation. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "05782e20-83c8-4a59-b64a-cd975bc0c425",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unconventional",
        "promptText": "Generate unconventional ideas about the following. Avoid the standard answers; propose explanations a specialist might consider contrarian.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 0,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "One unconventional possibility is that the mainstream variable is largely irrelevant, and that a structural feature nobody measures accounts for most of the variance. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "0150378a-65cf-45d0-a260-7aad1c100199",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "challenge",
        "promptText": "Challenge the conventional view on the following. What does the mainstream account get wrong, and what would a better account say?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 1,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.9,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A heterodox account holds that the effect is real but threshold-dependent: below a certain level nothing happens, which makes averaged studies misleading. Most proposals involve targeting: rather than acting uniformly, concentrate effort where the marginal return is highest and accept lower coverage elsewhere.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "a9cefebb-4722-4cec-a24a-c0f81908b488",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unconventional",
        "promptText": "Generate unconventional ideas about the following. Avoid the standard answers; propose explanations a specialist might consider contrarian.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 1,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A contrarian reading is that the effect runs in the opposite direction to the one usually assumed, and that the correlation everyone cites reflects reverse causation. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "2e144366-d8f3-4538-a11b-77229f3423ba",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "challenge",
        "promptText": "Challenge the conventional view on the following. What does the mainstream account get wrong, and what would a better account say?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 2,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.9,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A contrarian reading is that the effect runs in the opposite direction to the one usually assumed, and that the correlation everyone cites reflects reverse causation. Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "59e12709-941f-42f9-8c7e-ca32672713bd",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unconventional",
        "promptText": "Generate unconventional ideas about the following. Avoid the standard answers; propose explanations a specialist might consider contrarian.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 2,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A heterodox account holds that the effect is real but threshold-dependent: below a certain level nothing happens, which makes averaged studies misleading. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "b46fbe83-361f-4652-b7a6-daab9ab80c90",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "challenge",
        "promptText": "Challenge the conventional view on the following. What does the mainstream account get wrong, and what would a better account say?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 3,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.9,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A heterodox account holds that the effect is real but threshold-dependent: below a certain level nothing happens, which makes averaged studies misleading. Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "2f2cfa94-ef13-4ebb-81eb-af9dbd2c44d0",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unconventional",
        "promptText": "Generate unconventional ideas about the following. Avoid the standard answers; propose explanations a specialist might consider contrarian.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 3,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A contrarian reading is that the effect runs in the opposite direction to the one usually assumed, and that the correlation everyone cites reflects reverse causation. Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "463dfff7-0e6a-4459-a6e7-f4daa526ec5f",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "challenge",
        "promptText": "Challenge the conventional view on the following. What does the mainstream account get wrong, and what would a better account say?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 4,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.9,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "One unconventional possibility is that the mainstream variable is largely irrelevant, and that a structural feature nobody measures accounts for most of the variance. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "a7cfeb58-60a1-467a-9c6e-121c76d75b34",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unconventional",
        "promptText": "Generate unconventional ideas about the following. Avoid the standard answers; propose explanations a specialist might consider contrarian.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 4,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A heterodox account holds that the effect is real but threshold-dependent: below a certain level nothing happens, which makes averaged studies misleading. Standard recommendations focus on coordination — a shared standard, clearer reporting, and pooled investment so that no single actor bears the whole cost.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "94bf79bd-85e7-4ed8-8431-d8fd24df2052",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "challenge",
        "promptText": "Challenge the conventional view on the following. What does the mainstream account get wrong, and what would a better account say?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 5,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.9,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "One unconventional possibility is that the mainstream variable is largely irrelevant, and that a structural feature nobody measures accounts for most of the variance. Most proposals involve targeting: rather than acting uniformly, concentrate effort where the marginal return is highest and accept lower coverage elsewhere.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "946c507e-c558-47df-9c1a-f3b0dbf03407",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unconventional",
        "promptText": "Generate unconventional ideas about the following. Avoid the standard answers; propose explanations a specialist might consider contrarian.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 5,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "One unconventional possibility is that the mainstream variable is largely irrelevant, and that a structural feature nobody measures accounts for most of the variance. Most proposals involve targeting: rather than acting uniformly, concentrate effort where the marginal return is highest and accept lower coverage elsewhere.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "a90f4ac5-56b6-4556-a2e6-2b05f9bd31c2",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "challenge",
        "promptText": "Challenge the conventional view on the following. What does the mainstream account get wrong, and what would a better account say?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 6,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.9,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "One unconventional possibility is that the mainstream variable is largely irrelevant, and that a structural feature nobody measures accounts for most of the variance. The commonly proposed remedies are incremental: increase the available input, improve monitoring, and align incentives with the outcome that is actually wanted.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "5f308757-11c5-48b5-84cf-9105b3e980d8",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unconventional",
        "promptText": "Generate unconventional ideas about the following. Avoid the standard answers; propose explanations a specialist might consider contrarian.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 2,
        "sampleIndex": 6,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 1,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "A heterodox account holds that the effect is real but threshold-dependent: below a certain level nothing happens, which makes averaged studies misleading. Most proposals involve targeting: rather than acting uniformly, concentrate effort where the marginal return is highest and accept lower coverage elsewhere.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "7e1db7db-b6a0-42d0-befc-b8dc9cb7a2a0",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "overlooked_mechanisms",
        "promptText": "Work through the following step by step. First list the causal pathways usually invoked. Then identify a mechanism that is plausible but usually overlooked, and explain how it would operate.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 0,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Working through it more carefully, a plausible but under-discussed pathway is a second-order effect: the primary variable changes the conditions under which a secondary process operates, and that secondary process does most of the work. It would follow that measurement should change first: without recording the structural variable, no study could distinguish the two accounts.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "353ce3b3-573c-4570-94d1-8a61f123b46f",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unexpected_consequences",
        "promptText": "Reason step by step about the following. What consequences would follow that most analyses would not anticipate, and why?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 0,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Step by step, the overlooked mechanism is one of geometry rather than quantity — how the components are arranged relative to one another may matter more than how much of them there is. It would follow that measurement should change first: without recording the structural variable, no study could distinguish the two accounts.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "09a2e71a-de9f-4511-8dc8-6fbcc150fe55",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "overlooked_mechanisms",
        "promptText": "Work through the following step by step. First list the causal pathways usually invoked. Then identify a mechanism that is plausible but usually overlooked, and explain how it would operate.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 1,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Step by step, the overlooked mechanism is one of geometry rather than quantity — how the components are arranged relative to one another may matter more than how much of them there is. The unexpected consequence is that the most-funded interventions would be among the least effective, because they scale the wrong quantity.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "f383b66d-910e-42f2-bb41-b4854e135d93",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unexpected_consequences",
        "promptText": "Reason step by step about the following. What consequences would follow that most analyses would not anticipate, and why?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 1,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Reasoning it through, the mechanism most treatments skip is a feedback loop: the outcome alters the conditions that produced it, so a static model systematically misattributes the cause. The unexpected consequence is that the most-funded interventions would be among the least effective, because they scale the wrong quantity.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "da9ab2e3-85a2-4c75-ae59-bd50f337225a",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "overlooked_mechanisms",
        "promptText": "Work through the following step by step. First list the causal pathways usually invoked. Then identify a mechanism that is plausible but usually overlooked, and explain how it would operate.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 2,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Step by step, the overlooked mechanism is one of geometry rather than quantity — how the components are arranged relative to one another may matter more than how much of them there is. If that holds, the practical consequence is that interventions should be targeted at the configuration rather than the total, which inverts the usual prioritisation.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "59c70bbc-89a3-48dd-892d-e4539c2f0636",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unexpected_consequences",
        "promptText": "Reason step by step about the following. What consequences would follow that most analyses would not anticipate, and why?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 2,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Working through it more carefully, a plausible but under-discussed pathway is a second-order effect: the primary variable changes the conditions under which a secondary process operates, and that secondary process does most of the work. It would follow that measurement should change first: without recording the structural variable, no study could distinguish the two accounts.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "05e7eab1-de47-4058-a4bf-e45ae531a698",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "overlooked_mechanisms",
        "promptText": "Work through the following step by step. First list the causal pathways usually invoked. Then identify a mechanism that is plausible but usually overlooked, and explain how it would operate.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 3,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Working through it more carefully, a plausible but under-discussed pathway is a second-order effect: the primary variable changes the conditions under which a secondary process operates, and that secondary process does most of the work. The unexpected consequence is that the most-funded interventions would be among the least effective, because they scale the wrong quantity.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "8a26018f-5983-4155-9a08-b451e9af7f4d",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "unexpected_consequences",
        "promptText": "Reason step by step about the following. What consequences would follow that most analyses would not anticipate, and why?\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 3,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Working through it more carefully, a plausible but under-discussed pathway is a second-order effect: the primary variable changes the conditions under which a secondary process operates, and that secondary process does most of the work. The unexpected consequence is that the most-funded interventions would be among the least effective, because they scale the wrong quantity.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "76ae4283-05ab-47b7-bf58-1bf3d1546465",
        "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
        "baselineRunId": "5459890b-3d16-49a6-b680-b802b583e7ef",
        "promptKey": "overlooked_mechanisms",
        "promptText": "Work through the following step by step. First list the causal pathways usually invoked. Then identify a mechanism that is plausible but usually overlooked, and explain how it would operate.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
        "accessibilityTier": 3,
        "sampleIndex": 4,
        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
          "maxOutputTokens": 600
        },
        "output": "Reasoning it through, the mechanism most treatments skip is a feedback loop: the outcome alters the conditions that produced it, so a static model systematically misattributes the cause. It would follow that measurement should change first: without recording the structural variable, no study could distinguish the two accounts.",
        "status": "completed",
        "errorMessage": null,
        "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
        "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:11.854Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "6cb583e3-2547-49df-8901-42ba9485015e",
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        "promptKey": "overlooked_mechanisms",
        "promptText": "Work through the following step by step. First list the causal pathways usually invoked. Then identify a mechanism that is plausible but usually overlooked, and explain how it would operate.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
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        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
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        "output": "Working through it more carefully, a plausible but under-discussed pathway is a second-order effect: the primary variable changes the conditions under which a secondary process operates, and that secondary process does most of the work. It would follow that measurement should change first: without recording the structural variable, no study could distinguish the two accounts.",
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        "promptKey": "overlooked_mechanisms",
        "promptText": "Work through the following step by step. First list the causal pathways usually invoked. Then identify a mechanism that is plausible but usually overlooked, and explain how it would operate.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
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        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "temperature": 0.8,
        "parameters": {
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        "output": "Reasoning it through, the mechanism most treatments skip is a feedback loop: the outcome alters the conditions that produced it, so a static model systematically misattributes the cause. The unexpected consequence is that the most-funded interventions would be among the least effective, because they scale the wrong quantity.",
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        "promptKey": "assumption_fed",
        "promptText": "Take the following assumptions as given:\n- Facade thermal mass is a large enough share of canyon heat storage to dominate the night-time budget.\n- Transpiration rates in street conditions are low enough not to offset the facade effect.\n- Canyon geometry can be measured accurately enough to target planting by it.\n\nNow reason about this problem and state the strongest position those assumptions support.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
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        "parameters": {
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        "output": "Taking those assumptions as given, the strongest supported position is that the arrangement of the components, rather than their quantity, drives the outcome. Working through it more carefully, a plausible but under-discussed pathway is a second-order effect: the primary variable changes the conditions under which a secondary process operates, and that secondary process does most of the work. The unexpected consequence is that the most-funded interventions would be among the least effective, because they scale the wrong quantity.",
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        "promptKey": "assumption_fed",
        "promptText": "Take the following assumptions as given:\n- Facade thermal mass is a large enough share of canyon heat storage to dominate the night-time budget.\n- Transpiration rates in street conditions are low enough not to offset the facade effect.\n- Canyon geometry can be measured accurately enough to target planting by it.\n\nNow reason about this problem and state the strongest position those assumptions support.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
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        "provider": "fixture",
        "modelId": "fixture-baseline-v1",
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        "parameters": {
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        "output": "Taking those assumptions as given, the strongest supported position is that the arrangement of the components, rather than their quantity, drives the outcome. Reasoning it through, the mechanism most treatments skip is a feedback loop: the outcome alters the conditions that produced it, so a static model systematically misattributes the cause. It would follow that measurement should change first: without recording the structural variable, no study could distinguish the two accounts.",
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        "promptKey": "assumption_fed",
        "promptText": "Take the following assumptions as given:\n- Facade thermal mass is a large enough share of canyon heat storage to dominate the night-time budget.\n- Transpiration rates in street conditions are low enough not to offset the facade effect.\n- Canyon geometry can be measured accurately enough to target planting by it.\n\nNow reason about this problem and state the strongest position those assumptions support.\n\nField: urban climate.\nSubject: urban heat island.\nThe commonly held view is: Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\nQuestion: what actually accounts for this, and what follows from that account?",
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        "provider": "fixture",
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        "output": "Taking those assumptions as given, the strongest supported position is that the arrangement of the components, rather than their quantity, drives the outcome. Reasoning it through, the mechanism most treatments skip is a feedback loop: the outcome alters the conditions that produced it, so a static model systematically misattributes the cause. If that holds, the practical consequence is that interventions should be targeted at the configuration rather than the total, which inverts the usual prioritisation.",
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  "report": {
    "headlineAnswer": "Within the sources searched and model samples generated, the central position is already stated in the sources examined, but its proposed mechanism is close to accounts already in circulation.",
    "summary": "This analysis compared the submission against 58 retrieved sources and 60 base-model samples. The Originality Estimate of 43/100 is driven mainly by how readily ordinary search surfaces adjacent material. Qualified Originality (37/100) applies coherence and testability as dampeners: an unusual idea that cannot be tested is reported as unusual, not as promising. Confidence is low. This run used fixtures, so confidence is capped at low regardless of what the numbers suggest. None of this establishes that the idea has never appeared before. It describes where the idea sits relative to the evidence this run examined.",
    "establishedElements": [
      "The subject matter itself — urban heat island and street canyon geometry — is well covered in the retrieved sources.",
      "A retrieved source states substantially the same position: \"urban heat island street canyon geometry: the position stated and defended\"."
    ],
    "uncommonElements": [
      "The particular combination of concepts was not found stated together in the sources examined.",
      "The predictions drawn are more specific than those the baseline produced."
    ],
    "potentiallyOriginalRelationships": [
      "The link between urban heat island and street canyon geometry via the stated mechanism was not found asserted in this form."
    ],
    "unsupportedAssumptions": [
      "Facade thermal mass is a large enough share of canyon heat storage to dominate the night-time budget.",
      "Transpiration rates in street conditions are low enough not to offset the facade effect.",
      "Canyon geometry can be measured accurately enough to target planting by it."
    ],
    "suggestedTests": [
      "Design an observation that separates the proposed mechanism from the conventional account: find cases where the two predict opposite outcomes, and measure which occurs.",
      "Operationalise the stated prediction (Night-time cooling should scale with shaded facade area rather than with leaf area.) into a measurable quantity with a pre-registered threshold for what would count as disconfirmation.",
      "Identify a setting where the recommended action and the conventional action diverge, and compare outcomes there rather than on average.",
      "Search for the specific combination — urban heat island + street canyon geometry + longwave radiation budget — in sources this analysis did not cover: paywalled journals, books, non-English literature, and patents."
    ],
    "searchLimitations": [
      "This run used fixture search results, not a live web search. The sources listed are illustrative examples on a reserved example domain and are not real publications.",
      "Paywalled journals, books, theses, patents, internal documents, conference talks and private correspondence were not searched.",
      "Non-English sources were not searched unless a query happened to surface one.",
      "Only the excerpt each result returned was read. A source whose relevant argument sits outside its excerpt would be under-weighted.",
      "Absence of a match is weak evidence. It means these queries did not surface a prior statement, not that none exists."
    ],
    "modelLimitations": [
      "This run used fixture model generations, not live sampling. The baseline is a scripted stand-in that reproduces the shape of a real one.",
      "Level 5 means a facet was not produced during this analysis. It is not evidence that the model could not produce it — with different prompting, more samples, or a larger model, it might.",
      "The prompts are deliberately ordinary. A skilled prompter working deliberately toward this idea would very likely reach it sooner than this ladder suggests.",
      "Sampling is stochastic. Re-running the baseline would produce a partly different set of claims.",
      "Claims were clustered using a deterministic local embedding, not a trained embedding model. That groups near-identical phrasings reliably but will miss paraphrases that share no vocabulary."
    ],
    "provenance": {
      "mode": "demo",
      "note": "Seeded example. Produced by running the real pipeline over fixture providers.",
      "search": {
        "provider": "fixture",
        "isFixture": true,
        "uniqueDomains": 11,
        "queriesPlanned": 14,
        "resultsExamined": 58,
        "queriesSucceeded": 14
      },
      "baseline": {
        "model": "fixture-baseline-v1",
        "provider": "fixture",
        "completed": 60,
        "requested": 60
      },
      "narrative": {
        "model": null,
        "provider": "fixture"
      },
      "embeddings": {
        "model": "deterministic-local-v1",
        "isLearnedModel": false
      },
      "generatedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
      "scoringVersion": "1.0.0",
      "analysisStartedAt": "2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z",
      "analysisCompletedAt": "2026-01-15T09:04:00.000Z"
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    "markdown": "# Is this original?\n> **Demo Mode.** This report was produced from fixture evidence, not from live web search or live model sampling. It demonstrates the format and the arithmetic; it is not research.\n\n## Answer\nWithin the sources searched and model samples generated, the central position is already stated in the sources examined, but its proposed mechanism is close to accounts already in circulation.\n**Originality Estimate:** 43/100  \n**Qualified Originality:** 37/100  \n**Confidence:** low\nOriginality Estimate is a weighted heuristic: 30% deviation from public search, 25% rarity against the model baseline, 20% mechanism and structural novelty, 15% consequential difference, 10% specificity. Qualified Originality multiplies it by a coherence factor (0.889) and a testability factor (0.955).\n## Summary\nThis analysis compared the submission against 58 retrieved sources and 60 base-model samples. The Originality Estimate of 43/100 is driven mainly by how readily ordinary search surfaces adjacent material. Qualified Originality (37/100) applies coherence and testability as dampeners: an unusual idea that cannot be tested is reported as unusual, not as promising. Confidence is low. This run used fixtures, so confidence is capped at low regardless of what the numbers suggest. None of this establishes that the idea has never appeared before. It describes where the idea sits relative to the evidence this run examined.\n## Idea fingerprint\n- **Central position:** Street-tree cooling in dense cities is driven mainly by shading building facades and suppressing night-time longwave re-radiation in street canyons, not by evapotranspiration.\n- **Proposed mechanism:** A shaded facade absorbs substantially less solar energy during the day, so it stores less heat and re-emits less longwave radiation into the canyon after sunset; the canopy's effect on air temperature is therefore mediated by the building surface rather than by moisture flux.\n- **Conventional position modified or rejected:** Urban tree cooling is primarily attributed to evapotranspiration, with shading treated as a secondary daytime contribution.\n- **Concepts connected:** urban heat island, street canyon geometry, longwave radiation budget, tree canopy cover, facade thermal mass\n- **Assumptions:** Facade thermal mass is a large enough share of canyon heat storage to dominate the night-time budget.; Transpiration rates in street conditions are low enough not to offset the facade effect.; Canyon geometry can be measured accurately enough to target planting by it.\n- **Predictions:** Night-time cooling should scale with shaded facade area rather than with leaf area.; Narrow east-west corridors should show larger 3am temperature reductions than equivalent canopy added to open parkland.; The difference should be on the order of 1-2 degrees Celsius at 3am over a summer.\n- **Practical consequences:** Planting programmes budgeted by canopy percentage would systematically underperform ones targeted at canyon geometry.; Cooling benefit estimates derived from leaf-area indices would be biased in dense districts.\n- **Recommended action:** Authorities should prioritise planting on narrow east-west streets over expanding open parkland where night-time heat is the binding constraint.\n- **Domain:** urban climate\n- **Canonical sentence:** Street trees cool dense cities mainly by shading facades and cutting night-time longwave re-radiation, not by evapotranspiration.\n## Scores\n| Score | Value | Reading |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Position originality | 45 | Higher = the central claim was harder to reach |\n| Mechanism originality | 11 | Higher = the proposed pathway was harder to reach |\n| Conceptual-combination originality | 69 | Higher = this pairing of concepts was harder to reach |\n| Prediction originality | 58 | Higher = the predictions were harder to reach |\n| Practical-consequence originality | 46 | Higher = the consequences drawn were harder to reach |\n| Search accessibility | 95 | Higher = ordinary search finds it more easily |\n| Model accessibility | 31 | Higher = ordinary prompting produces it more easily |\n| Coherence | 63 | Higher = the argument follows |\n| Specificity | 88 | Higher = more concrete and quantified |\n| Testability | 85 | Higher = easier to falsify |\n| Evidential grounding | 61 | Higher = better anchored in checkable evidence |\n## Closest public-search matches\n- **Essentially identical** — [urban heat island street canyon geometry: the position stated and defended](https://conference-proceedings-track-b.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example/84643) (conference-proceedings-track-b.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example), label confidence 0.82\n  The source advances the same position and the same proposed pathway, with a comparable practical recommendation. Its evidence is preliminary and single-site, which limits how much weight this match should carry.\n- **Essentially identical** — [urban heat island street canyon longwave: the position stated and defended](https://conference-proceedings-track-b.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example/46820) (conference-proceedings-track-b.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example), label confidence 0.81\n  The source advances the same position and the same proposed pathway, with a comparable practical recommendation. Its evidence is preliminary and single-site, which limits how much weight this match should carry.\n- **Essentially identical** — [urban tree cooling primarily attributed evapotranspiration: the position stated and defended](https://conference-proceedings-track-b.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example/90424) (conference-proceedings-track-b.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example), label confidence 0.71\n  The source advances the same position and the same proposed pathway, with a comparable practical recommendation. Its evidence is preliminary and single-site, which limits how much weight this match should carry.\n- **Essentially identical** — [planting programmes budgeted canopy percentage would: the position stated and defended](https://conference-proceedings-track-b.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example/45470) (conference-proceedings-track-b.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example), label confidence 0.59\n  The source advances the same position and the same proposed pathway, with a comparable practical recommendation. Its evidence is preliminary and single-site, which limits how much weight this match should carry.\n- **Same position, different wording** — [Revisiting street-tree cooling dense cities driven mainly: a synthesis of the standard account](https://journal-of-applied-systems-review.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example/27489) (journal-of-applied-systems-review.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example), label confidence 0.87\n  The source states the same central position in different vocabulary. It does not engage with the proposed mechanism, so the mechanism facet is untouched by this match.\n- **Same position, different wording** — [Revisiting urban heat island street canyon geometry: a synthesis of the standard account](https://journal-of-applied-systems-review.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example/30546) (journal-of-applied-systems-review.fixtures.isthisoriginal.example), label confidence 0.86\n  The source states the same central position in different vocabulary. It does not engage with the proposed mechanism, so the mechanism facet is untouched by this match.\n## Closest model-generated matches\n- **mechanism** — partial_overlap, level 0 (Produced directly by a basic prompt)\n  The dominant explanation is a straightforward resource constraint: the observed effect scales with how much of the input is available, and most of the variation between cases is explained by that alone.\n- **prediction** — partial_overlap, level 1 (Produced through repeated basic sampling)\n  The usual explanation is historical path dependence: early choices locked in a configuration that is now costly to change, and the present pattern is largely inherited rather than chosen.\n- **mechanism** — partial_overlap, level 3 (Produced only through multi-step reasoning)\n  The unexpected consequence is that the most-funded interventions would be among the least effective, because they scale the wrong quantity.\n- **mechanism** — partial_overlap, level 3 (Produced only through multi-step reasoning)\n  If that holds, the practical consequence is that interventions should be targeted at the configuration rather than the total, which inverts the usual prioritisation.\n- **prediction** — partial_overlap, level 3 (Produced only through multi-step reasoning)\n  If that holds, the practical consequence is that interventions should be targeted at the configuration rather than the total, which inverts the usual prioritisation.\n- **mechanism** — partial_overlap, level 4 (Reconstructable only after supplying key assumptions)\n  Taking those assumptions as given, the strongest supported position is that the arrangement of the components, rather than their quantity, drives the outcome.\n## Established elements\n- The subject matter itself — urban heat island and street canyon geometry — is well covered in the retrieved sources.\n- A retrieved source states substantially the same position: \"urban heat island street canyon geometry: the position stated and defended\".\n## Uncommon elements\n- The particular combination of concepts was not found stated together in the sources examined.\n- The predictions drawn are more specific than those the baseline produced.\n## Potentially original relationships\n- The link between urban heat island and street canyon geometry via the stated mechanism was not found asserted in this form.\n## Unsupported assumptions\n- Facade thermal mass is a large enough share of canyon heat storage to dominate the night-time budget.\n- Transpiration rates in street conditions are low enough not to offset the facade effect.\n- Canyon geometry can be measured accurately enough to target planting by it.\n## Suggested tests\n- Design an observation that separates the proposed mechanism from the conventional account: find cases where the two predict opposite outcomes, and measure which occurs.\n- Operationalise the stated prediction (Night-time cooling should scale with shaded facade area rather than with leaf area.) into a measurable quantity with a pre-registered threshold for what would count as disconfirmation.\n- Identify a setting where the recommended action and the conventional action diverge, and compare outcomes there rather than on average.\n- Search for the specific combination — urban heat island + street canyon geometry + longwave radiation budget — in sources this analysis did not cover: paywalled journals, books, non-English literature, and patents.\n## Search limitations\n- This run used fixture search results, not a live web search. The sources listed are illustrative examples on a reserved example domain and are not real publications.\n- Paywalled journals, books, theses, patents, internal documents, conference talks and private correspondence were not searched.\n- Non-English sources were not searched unless a query happened to surface one.\n- Only the excerpt each result returned was read. A source whose relevant argument sits outside its excerpt would be under-weighted.\n- Absence of a match is weak evidence. It means these queries did not surface a prior statement, not that none exists.\n## Model-sampling limitations\n- This run used fixture model generations, not live sampling. The baseline is a scripted stand-in that reproduces the shape of a real one.\n- Level 5 means a facet was not produced during this analysis. It is not evidence that the model could not produce it — with different prompting, more samples, or a larger model, it might.\n- The prompts are deliberately ordinary. A skilled prompter working deliberately toward this idea would very likely reach it sooner than this ladder suggests.\n- Sampling is stochastic. Re-running the baseline would produce a partly different set of claims.\n- Claims were clustered using a deterministic local embedding, not a trained embedding model. That groups near-identical phrasings reliably but will miss paraphrases that share no vocabulary.\n## Provenance\n```json\n{\n  \"mode\": \"demo\",\n  \"generatedAt\": \"2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z\",\n  \"analysisStartedAt\": \"2026-01-15T09:00:00.000Z\",\n  \"analysisCompletedAt\": \"2026-01-15T09:04:00.000Z\",\n  \"scoringVersion\": \"1.0.0\",\n  \"search\": {\n    \"provider\": \"fixture\",\n    \"isFixture\": true,\n    \"queriesPlanned\": 14,\n    \"queriesSucceeded\": 14,\n    \"resultsExamined\": 58,\n    \"uniqueDomains\": 11\n  },\n  \"baseline\": {\n    \"provider\": \"fixture\",\n    \"model\": \"fixture-baseline-v1\",\n    \"requested\": 60,\n    \"completed\": 60\n  },\n  \"embeddings\": {\n    \"model\": \"deterministic-local-v1\",\n    \"isLearnedModel\": false\n  },\n  \"narrative\": {\n    \"provider\": \"fixture\",\n    \"model\": null\n  },\n  \"note\": \"Seeded example. Produced by running the real pipeline over fixture providers.\"\n}\n```\n---\n_IsThisOriginal estimates originality from the evidence it examined. It does not search all human knowledge and cannot establish that an idea has never appeared before._"
  },
  "scores": {
    "id": "509f0a72-673e-498e-a921-cc0a9019c859",
    "analysisId": "00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001",
    "positionOriginality": 45,
    "mechanismOriginality": 11,
    "combinationOriginality": 69,
    "predictionOriginality": 58,
    "consequenceOriginality": 46,
    "searchAccessibility": 95,
    "modelAccessibility": 31,
    "coherence": 63,
    "specificity": 88,
    "testability": 85,
    "evidentialGrounding": 61,
    "originalityEstimate": 43,
    "qualifiedOriginality": 37,
    "coherenceFactor": 0.889,
    "testabilityFactor": 0.955,
    "confidence": "low",
    "breakdown": {
      "notes": [
        "Demo Mode: scores are computed from fixture evidence, not from live search or live model sampling."
      ],
      "terms": {
        "modelRarity": 69,
        "specificity": 88,
        "searchDeviation": 5,
        "structuralNovelty": 40,
        "consequentialDifference": 52
      },
      "facets": {
        "position": {
          "blended": 45,
          "modelRarity": 95,
          "searchOriginality": 5,
          "searchSuppression": 0.9541,
          "modelAccessibilityLevel": 5
        },
        "mechanism": {
          "blended": 11,
          "modelRarity": 19,
          "searchOriginality": 5,
          "searchSuppression": 0.9471,
          "modelAccessibilityLevel": 1
        },
        "prediction": {
          "blended": 58,
          "modelRarity": 39,
          "searchOriginality": 74,
          "searchSuppression": 0.2641,
          "modelAccessibilityLevel": 2
        },
        "combination": {
          "blended": 69,
          "modelRarity": 95,
          "searchOriginality": 47,
          "searchSuppression": 0.5274,
          "modelAccessibilityLevel": 5
        },
        "consequence": {
          "blended": 46,
          "modelRarity": 95,
          "searchOriginality": 5,
          "searchSuppression": 0.9469,
          "modelAccessibilityLevel": 5
        }
      },
      "weights": {
        "modelRarity": 0.25,
        "specificity": 0.1,
        "searchDeviation": 0.3,
        "structuralNovelty": 0.2,
        "consequentialDifference": 0.15
      },
      "coverage": {
        "isDemo": true,
        "uniqueDomains": 11,
        "queriesPlanned": 14,
        "resultsExamined": 58,
        "queriesSucceeded": 14,
        "baselineCompleted": 60,
        "baselineRequested": 60
      },
      "qualified": {
        "result": 37,
        "formula": "Originality Estimate x Coherence Factor x Testability Factor",
        "estimate": 43,
        "coherenceFactor": 0.889,
        "testabilityFactor": 0.955
      },
      "contributions": {
        "modelRarity": 17.25,
        "specificity": 8.8,
        "searchDeviation": 1.5,
        "structuralNovelty": 8,
        "consequentialDifference": 7.8
      },
      "qualityInputs": {
        "coherence": {
          "notes": "A mechanism is stated and connected to the central claim by explicit causal language.",
          "argumentFollows": 3,
          "undefinedKeyTerms": 2,
          "internalContradictions": 0
        },
        "grounding": {
          "notes": "Assumptions listed here are those extracted from the submission that it does not itself support with evidence.",
          "evidenceAnchoring": 3,
          "unsupportedAssumptionCount": 3
        },
        "specificity": {
          "notes": "2 quantified expression(s) and 0 hedging term(s) detected in the submission as written.",
          "concreteness": 4,
          "hedgeDensity": 0,
          "namedVariables": 11,
          "quantifiedClaims": 2
        },
        "testability": {
          "notes": "The submission names a conventional position, so at least some predictions could distinguish between the two accounts.",
          "falsifiability": 4,
          "observablePredictions": 3,
          "discriminatingPredictions": 2
        }
      },
      "scoringVersion": "1.0.0"
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    "scoringVersion": "1.0.0",
    "createdAt": "2026-07-30T11:53:12.086Z"
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}